Seasonal goods: how much to buy
Last year's sales are the best guide; if you recorded them you will not overbuy.
Seasonal goods are either a big profit or a big burden. Heaters before winter, fans in summer, school bags before 1 September, festive items ahead of Navro'z or Hayit: all of them carry the same risk. Buy too much and after the season your money freezes for a year. Buy too little and the shelves are empty on your best days while the customer walks to a competitor. The most reliable guide is last year's sales. If you recorded them, a guess becomes a calculation.
Record last year month by month
For each seasonal item keep a small table: month (or week), quantity sold, selling price, discount and the days it was out of stock. If you have no sales records, approximate data can come from supplier delivery notes and the till report: when and how much you bought shows where the season started and ended.
Sales are not demand: correct for out-of-stock days
Counting only what sold understates demand, because on days when the goods were gone there were no sales, but there was demand. Take electric heaters. Last year you sold 18 in October, 46 in November, 52 in December and 14 in January, 130 in all. But on 22 December the heaters ran out. In those 22 days you sold 2.4 a day on average, so in the remaining 9 days about 21 sales were lost. Real demand was therefore not 130 but about 151.
From forecast to order
The formula is simple: order = expected sales × (1 + growth) − stock on hand − goods in transit.
Judge growth from the current year: by what percentage have sales of ordinary goods risen compared with last year? For the heaters take 10%: 151 × 1.10 ≈ 166 units. You have 14 left over from last season, so you need to buy 166 − 14 = 152, roughly 150. Growth can be judged three ways: the change in sales of ordinary goods against last year, the number of customers and the rise in prices. If prices have risen, growth in units will be smaller than growth in so'm, so count in units, not in so'm. That number will never be perfect, but it is far more accurate than one chosen by eye.
Buy in two batches
Do not buy everything at once. The first batch, about 55% of the total or 80 units, arrives before the season starts. Order the second (70 units) after you have seen the first 3 to 4 weeks of sales. If October and November sell 20% faster than planned, enlarge the second batch; if slower, shrink it. Agree in advance with the supplier how many days a repeat order takes. If it is 5 to 7 days, place it at least two weeks before the busiest period begins.
Pay attention to variants too: put the most requested colours, sizes or power ratings in the first batch and leave the slower ones for the second. That way your money is not tied up early in slow variants.
End of season: an exit plan and lessons
Leftovers are natural, so plan for them in advance. Fix the date discounts begin (say 1 February) and their steps beforehand, so you do not decide in a hurry once the season is over. The 14 leftover heaters at a cost of 380,000 so'm each are worth 5.3 million so'm. If you keep them, that money lies idle until next winter. Storage is not free either: it takes space, packaging fades and an old model loses value once a new one appears. It is better to start discounting not late but while trade is still alive.
After the season write a five-line summary: the hottest dates, sales by month, out-of-stock days, discounts used and leftover quantity. Weather matters too: a cold November or a mild winter shifts demand, so note that as well. One year of records is good for a forecast, and three years give an almost exact pattern.
Conclusion
In seasonal trade the winner is the one who calculates: last year's sales, a correction for out-of-stock days, two batches and an exit plan made in advance. If you have no data from last year or your balances are tangled, the AniqHisob team can run a stock count, put your records in order and prepare the groundwork for the next season.